Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 43 Racecourse Ground· Wrexham Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Wrexham PPG 1.57

2-0 HIT CS4

Stoke City PPG 1.05

Away· +13.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Wrexham face Stoke City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wrexham a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Stoke City 25%, so Wrexham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Wrexham and 1.0 for Stoke City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wrexham are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.05 for Stoke City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.3%

Odds: 1.71 EV: -14.0%

Draw 25.0%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -7.5%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +13.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.1% Odds: 1.80 -11.6%

Over 3.5 27.2% Odds: 3.00 -18.4%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.75 -9.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✔

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Wrexham

1.60

Stoke City

1.04

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+13.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.05)