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Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Wrexham

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stoke City

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.4%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.9%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 58.5% 1.71 -14.0%

Draw 25.0% 27.0% 3.70 -7.5%

Away win 24.7% 21.7% 4.60 +13.6%

Over 2.5 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Over 3.5 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -18.4%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0✓ 9.1%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wrexham1.6

Stoke City1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WREXHAM · PPG 1.57

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.05)

Win probability 1X2

Wrexham (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -14.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.5%

Stoke City (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wrexham face Stoke City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wrexham a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Stoke City 25%, so Wrexham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Wrexham and 1.0 for Stoke City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wrexham are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.05 for Stoke City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Wrexham vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions