Today / England - Championship / Swansea City vs Southampton

Swansea City vs Southampton Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Swansea City

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Southampton

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.0%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.2%1-111.6%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 26.0% 3.85 +47.1%

Draw 24.9% 26.0% 3.85 -4.1%

Away win 36.9% 55.2% 1.81 -33.2%

Over 2.5 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

BTTS 58.2% 57.8% 1.73 +0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.2%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2✓ 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swansea City1.5

Southampton1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SWANSEA CITY · PPG 1.71

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Swansea City (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +47.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.1%

Southampton (A) 36.9%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -33.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swansea City face Southampton in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swansea City a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Southampton 37%, so Swansea City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Swansea City and 1.4 for Southampton (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swansea City are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Southampton. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Swansea City vs Southampton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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