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Sheffield Wed vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Sheffield Wed

PPG 0.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Charlton

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-118.7%0-211.1%0-34.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.5%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.5%2-14.1%2-22.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.7% 20.4% 4.90 +1.4%

Draw 30.9% 28.2% 3.55 +9.7%

Away win 48.5% 58.5% 1.71 -17.1%

Over 2.5 28.0% 48.8% 2.05 -42.6%

Over 3.5 11.5% 27.0% 3.70 -57.5%

BTTS 33.5% 51.3% 1.95 -34.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob33.5%

A 48% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.7%

#2 0–0 15.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.4%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield Wed0.7

Charlton1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD WED · PPG 0.29

CHARLTON · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield Wed (H) 20.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +1.4%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +9.7%

Charlton (A) 48.5%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield Wed face Charlton in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield Wed a 21% chance, the draw 31% and Charlton 49%, so Charlton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sheffield Wed and 1.2 for Charlton (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield Wed are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Charlton. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Sheffield Wed vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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