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Preston vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Preston

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

West Brom

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Home 37% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 29.4% — a clear edge.

+88.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.7%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.8%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.6%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 29.4% 3.40 +88.7%

Draw 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -16.5%

Away win 18.7% 46.7% 2.14 -60.0%

Over 2.5 40.5% 47.6% 2.10 -14.9%

Over 3.5 20.1% 26.3% 3.80 -23.6%

BTTS 42.1% 54.1% 1.85 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.1%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston1.5

West Brom0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON · PPG 1.48

WEST BROM · PPG 0.76

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

37%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.48) > Away POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Preston (H) 55.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +88.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.5%

West Brom (A) 18.7%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -60.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston face West Brom in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston a 56% chance, the draw 26% and West Brom 19%, so Preston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Preston and 0.8 for West Brom (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 0.76 for West Brom. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +88.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Preston vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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