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Trelleborg vs Trollhattan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Trelleborg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trollhattan

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-17.7%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-18.7%4+-24.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% 71.4% 1.40 -16.0%

Draw 21.3% 22.7% 4.40 -3.8%

Away win 18.7% 15.4% 6.50 +12.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 46.0% 42.6% 2.35 +8.1%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trelleborg2.5

Trollhattan1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.00

TROLLHATTAN · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (3.00) strong but model favors Home (P=60.0%)

Win probability 1X2

Trelleborg (H) 60.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.0%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.8%

Trollhattan (A) 18.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trelleborg face Trollhattan in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trelleborg a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Trollhattan 19%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Trelleborg and 1.0 for Trollhattan (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trelleborg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Trollhattan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Trelleborg vs Trollhattan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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