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Olympic vs Atvidaberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Olympic

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atvidaberg

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.3%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.8%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 26.6% 35.7% 2.80 -15.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Over 3.5 23.5% 33.9% 2.95 -18.4%

BTTS 51.6% 62.5% 1.60 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic1.4

Atvidaberg1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 2.00

ATVIDABERG · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.5%

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Atvidaberg (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face Atvidaberg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Atvidaberg 27%, so Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Olympic and 1.1 for Atvidaberg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Atvidaberg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Olympic vs Atvidaberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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