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Eskilsminne vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Skovde AIK

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-112.1%0-26.7%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.4%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 56.5% 1.77 -37.2%

Draw 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

Away win 35.8% 26.7% 3.75 +34.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 60.6% 1.65 -23.8%

Over 3.5 18.4% 38.5% 2.60 -31.3%

BTTS 51.3% 63.7% 1.57 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.3%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eskilsminne1.1

Skovde AIK1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.75

SKOVDE AIK · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Eskilsminne (H) 35.5%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -37.2%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +3.9%

Skovde AIK (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eskilsminne face Skovde AIK in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eskilsminne a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Skovde AIK 36%, so Skovde AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Eskilsminne and 1.1 for Skovde AIK (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eskilsminne are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Skovde AIK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Eskilsminne vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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