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Stocksund vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Stocksund

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pitea

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.4%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.1%1-16.0%1-25.8%1-33.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-03.0%3-15.9%3-25.7%3-33.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.4%4+-26.2%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 45.5% 2.20 +11.8%

Draw 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 26.8% 38.2% 2.62 -17.9%

Over 2.5 69.8% 72.5% 1.38 -3.7%

Over 3.5 63.6% 51.3% 1.95 +24.0%

BTTS 66.7% 75.2% 1.33 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 3–1 5.9%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksund2.4

Pitea1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.50

PITEA · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Stocksund (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +11.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

Pitea (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksund face Pitea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksund a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Pitea 27%, so Stocksund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Stocksund and 1.9 for Pitea (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksund are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Pitea. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Stocksund vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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