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Karlstad vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Karlstad

PPG 2.25 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vasalund

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.4%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 45.5% 2.20 +14.0%

Draw 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 22.7% 34.7% 2.88 -20.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

Over 3.5 23.2% 36.4% 2.75 -21.7%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlstad1.6

Vasalund0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.25

VASALUND · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=51.8%

Win probability 1X2

Karlstad (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +14.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Vasalund (A) 22.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlstad face Vasalund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlstad a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Vasalund 23%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Karlstad and 0.9 for Vasalund (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlstad are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.67 for Vasalund. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 5-0.

Karlstad vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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