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Gefle vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Gefle

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Assyriska

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.1%0-21.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.7%1-15.8%1-24.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.7%3-17.3%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-19.6%4+-27.5%4+-33.9%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 51.3% 1.95 +3.0%

Draw 22.4% 28.2% 3.55 -12.3%

Away win 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 61.7% 1.62 +13.1%

Over 3.5 62.1% 40.0% 2.50 +55.3%

BTTS 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.6 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.3%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gefle2.7

Assyriska1.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GEFLE · PPG 2.00

ASSYRISKA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gefle (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.3%

Assyriska (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gefle face Assyriska in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gefle a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Assyriska 25%, so Gefle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Gefle and 1.6 for Assyriska (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gefle are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Assyriska. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +55.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Gefle vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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