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Enkoping vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Enkoping

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sollentuna

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.7%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.2%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.5%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Draw 26.6% 26.3% 3.80 +0.7%

Away win 35.5% 32.3% 3.10 +10.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Over 3.5 29.0% 42.6% 2.35 -19.1%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enkoping1.4

Sollentuna1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ENKOPING · PPG 2.25

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.25), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Enkoping (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -26.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.7%

Sollentuna (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enkoping face Sollentuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enkoping a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Sollentuna 36%, so Enkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Enkoping and 1.3 for Sollentuna (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enkoping are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Sollentuna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Enkoping vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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