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Hull City vs Birmingham City Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship logo England flag England - Championship Regular Season - 43 MKM Stadium· Hull Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00
Hull City logo Hull City PPG 1.62
1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Birmingham City logo Birmingham City PPG 0.86
Home· +37.2% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hull City face Birmingham City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hull City a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Birmingham City 21%, so Hull City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hull City and 1.0 for Birmingham City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hull City are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.86 for Birmingham City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.0%
Odds: 2.45 EV: +37.2%
Draw 22.8%
Odds: 3.40 EV: -22.5%
Away 21.3%
Odds: 2.72 EV: -42.1%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.9% Odds: 1.83 +0.5%
Over 3.5 32.6% Odds: 3.10 +1.1%
BTTS 54.4% Odds: 1.65 -10.2%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-1
4th 2-0
5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Hull City
1.84
Birmingham City
1.04

Model Suggestion

Home +37.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.62) > Away POOR (0.86)

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