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Hull City vs Birmingham City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Hull City

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Birmingham City

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

Home 45% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+37.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.9%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.8%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 40.8% 2.45 +37.2%

Draw 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -22.5%

Away win 21.3% 36.8% 2.72 -42.1%

Over 2.5 54.9% 54.6% 1.83 +0.5%

Over 3.5 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

BTTS 54.4% 60.6% 1.65 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.4%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hull City1.8

Birmingham City1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HULL CITY · PPG 1.62

BIRMINGHAM CITY · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

45%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.62) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Hull City (H) 56.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +37.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -22.5%

Birmingham City (A) 21.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -42.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hull City face Birmingham City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hull City a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Birmingham City 21%, so Hull City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hull City and 1.0 for Birmingham City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hull City are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.86 for Birmingham City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Hull City vs Birmingham City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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