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Auda vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Auda

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RFS

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.7%0-26.8%0-34.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.0%1-110.5%1-29.3%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.2%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 19.2% 5.20 +70.0%

Draw 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -3.0%

Away win 42.3% 64.5% 1.55 -34.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% 37.0% 2.70 +3.1%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda1.4

RFS1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.80

RFS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 32.7%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +70.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.0%

RFS (A) 42.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 33% chance, the draw 25% and RFS 42%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Auda and 1.8 for RFS (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 3.00 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +70.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Auda vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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