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Bristol City vs Norwich City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 43 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Bristol City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 4

FULL TIME

Norwich City

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.3%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.8%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.8%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 38.8% 2.58 +14.0%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -8.2%

Away win 28.8% 38.8% 2.58 -25.7%

Over 2.5 43.9% 54.1% 1.85 -18.8%

Over 3.5 22.9% 31.3% 3.20 -26.7%

BTTS 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.8%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bristol City1.4

Norwich City1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.33

NORWICH CITY · PPG 1.52

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.52)

Win probability 1X2

Bristol City (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +14.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.2%

Norwich City (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bristol City face Norwich City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bristol City a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Norwich City 29%, so Bristol City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bristol City and 1.1 for Norwich City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bristol City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.52 for Norwich City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 2-4.

Bristol City vs Norwich City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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