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Jonsered vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Jonsered

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lindome

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.4%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.8%1-16.6%1-23.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.0%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-110.5%4+-26.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 59.5% 1.68 +0.3%

Draw 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

Away win 19.4% 25.6% 3.90 -14.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Over 3.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–1 6.6%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonsered2.7

Lindome1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JONSERED · PPG 2.33

LINDOME · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jonsered (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +0.3%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.8%

Lindome (A) 19.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonsered face Lindome in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonsered a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Lindome 19%, so Jonsered are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Jonsered and 1.1 for Lindome (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonsered are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Lindome. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 0-5.

Jonsered vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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