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Astrio vs Galtabäcks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Astrio

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Galtabäcks

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

Away 46% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+53.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-110.9%0-210.9%0-37.2%0-4+5.7%1 1-05.0%1-19.9%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.3%2-14.5%2-24.5%2-33.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 41.7% 2.40 -39.6%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 61.5% 40.0% 2.50 +53.8%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Over 3.5 33.2% 48.8% 2.05 -31.9%

BTTS 52.6% 73.5% 1.36 -28.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob52.6%

A 62% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 0–2 10.9%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astrio0.9

Galtabäcks2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTRIO · PPG 0.33

GALTABÄCKS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

46%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Astrio (H) 14.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -39.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Galtabäcks (A) 61.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Astrio face Galtabäcks in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astrio a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Galtabäcks 62%, so Galtabäcks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Astrio and 2.0 for Galtabäcks (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astrio are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Galtabäcks. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Astrio vs Galtabäcks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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