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Lund vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Lund

PPG 3.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Utsikten

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.0%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.9%1-15.6%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-18.0%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-17.5%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.6%4+-110.5%4+-23.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.6% 69.4% 1.44 +0.2%

Draw 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Away win 8.9% 16.7% 6.00 -28.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 64.5% 1.55 -0.9%

Over 3.5 45.3% 42.6% 2.35 +6.5%

BTTS 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 70% / xG 2.8-0.6 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 4–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lund2.8

Utsikten0.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUND · PPG 3.00

UTSIKTEN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lund (H) 69.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +0.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Utsikten (A) 8.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lund face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lund a 70% chance, the draw 22% and Utsikten 9%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Lund and 0.6 for Utsikten (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lund are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Utsikten. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Lund vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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