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Jonkopings vs Hassleholms IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Jonkopings

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hassleholms IF

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.1%0-23.3%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.1%1-18.4%1-26.9%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.9%4+-24.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 58.8% 1.70 -16.5%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 26.3% 23.1% 4.33 +8.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 54.1% 1.85 +18.2%

Over 3.5 50.3% 31.3% 3.20 +61.0%

BTTS 62.7% 56.5% 1.77 +11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.7%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings2.1

Hassleholms IF1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS · PPG 2.00

HASSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -16.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Hassleholms IF (A) 26.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings face Hassleholms IF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Hassleholms IF 26%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Jonkopings and 1.6 for Hassleholms IF (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Hassleholms IF. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +61.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Jonkopings vs Hassleholms IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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