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FBK Karlstad vs Umea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Umea

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.9%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-17.3%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-19.3%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.9%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-19.2%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 44.4% 2.25 +38.6%

Draw 21.6% 27.4% 3.65 -12.7%

Away win 16.8% 37.7% 2.65 -33.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 44.7% 42.6% 2.35 +5.1%

BTTS 52.6% 69.4% 1.44 -24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 1–1✓ 7.3%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad2.5

Umea0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 3.00

UMEA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.6%

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 61.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +38.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.7%

Umea (A) 16.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Umea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Umea 17%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for FBK Karlstad and 0.9 for Umea (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Umea. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 1-1.

FBK Karlstad vs Umea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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