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Sandecja Nowy vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:15

Sandecja Nowy

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

O. Grudziadz

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.5%0-25.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.3%1-111.1%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 46.5% 2.15 -20.9%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Away win 37.2% 35.7% 2.80 +4.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Over 3.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandecja Nowy1.5

O. Grudziadz1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDECJA NOWY · PPG 1.47

O. GRUDZIADZ · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Sandecja Nowy (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -20.9%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

O. Grudziadz (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandecja Nowy face O. Grudziadz in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandecja Nowy a 37% chance, the draw 26% and O. Grudziadz 37%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sandecja Nowy and 1.5 for O. Grudziadz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandecja Nowy are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.47 for O. Grudziadz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Sandecja Nowy vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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