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Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Werder Bremen

PPG 1.14 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hamburger SV

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.9%0-26.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.2%1-112.7%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 51.0% 1.96 -26.9%

Draw 26.8% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

Away win 36.0% 27.4% 3.65 +31.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 57.8% 1.73 -19.6%

Over 3.5 25.0% 35.7% 2.80 -30.0%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen1.3

Hamburger SV1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 1.14

HAMBURGER SV · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen (H) 37.3%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -26.9%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.2%

Hamburger SV (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen face Hamburger SV in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Hamburger SV 36%, so Werder Bremen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Werder Bremen and 1.3 for Hamburger SV (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Hamburger SV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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