Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei· Berlin Saturday, April 18, 2026 13:30

Union Berlin PPG 1.29

1-2 HIT CS3

Wolfsburg PPG 0.86

Over3.5· +46.9% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin face Wolfsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Wolfsburg 30%, so Union Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Union Berlin and 1.5 for Wolfsburg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.86 for Wolfsburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.8%

Odds: 2.18 EV: +4.2%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -24.1%

Away 30.2%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -6.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.9% Odds: 1.85 +23.8%

Over 3.5 45.2% Odds: 3.25 +46.9%

BTTS 66.7% Odds: 1.70 +13.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✔

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Berlin

1.94

Wolfsburg

1.51

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +23.8% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+46.9%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.86)