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Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Union Berlin

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wolfsburg

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+23.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.8%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.2%1-19.3%1-27.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.8%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 45.9% 2.18 +4.2%

Draw 22.0% 29.0% 3.45 -24.1%

Away win 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 66.9% 54.1% 1.85 +23.8%

Over 3.5 45.2% 30.8% 3.25 +46.9%

BTTS 66.7% 58.8% 1.70 +13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob66.7%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2✓ 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin1.9

Wolfsburg1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN · PPG 1.29

WOLFSBURG · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +4.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -24.1%

Wolfsburg (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin face Wolfsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Wolfsburg 30%, so Union Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Union Berlin and 1.5 for Wolfsburg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.86 for Wolfsburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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