Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 30 BayArena· Leverkusen Saturday, April 18, 2026 13:30

Leverkusen PPG 1.93

1-2 MISS

FC Augsburg PPG 0.79

Over3.5· +12.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen face FC Augsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen a 74% chance, the draw 15% and FC Augsburg 11%, so Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Leverkusen and 1.0 for FC Augsburg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.79 for FC Augsburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 74.2%

Odds: 1.40 EV: +3.9%

Draw 14.6%

Odds: 4.85 EV: -29.2%

Away 11.2%

Odds: 6.80 EV: -23.8%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.9% Odds: 1.44 +6.4%

Over 3.5 53.6% Odds: 2.10 +12.6%

BTTS 60.6% Odds: 1.60 -3.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Leverkusen

2.81

FC Augsburg

1.03

Model SuggestionHome +3.9% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+12.6%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus