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Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Leverkusen

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FC Augsburg

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 74.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.2%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.0%1-16.2%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-111.4%4+-25.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.2% 71.4% 1.40 +3.9%

Draw 14.6% 20.6% 4.85 -29.2%

Away win 11.2% 14.7% 6.80 -23.8%

Over 2.5 73.9% 69.4% 1.44 +6.4%

Over 3.5 53.6% 47.6% 2.10 +12.6%

BTTS 60.6% 62.5% 1.60 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.6%

H 74% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leverkusen2.8

FC Augsburg1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVERKUSEN · PPG 1.93

FC AUGSBURG · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

72%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leverkusen (H) 74.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +3.9%

Draw 14.6%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -29.2%

FC Augsburg (A) 11.2%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen face FC Augsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen a 74% chance, the draw 15% and FC Augsburg 11%, so Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Leverkusen and 1.0 for FC Augsburg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.79 for FC Augsburg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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