Hoffenheim vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 30 PreZero Arena· Sinsheim Saturday, April 18, 2026 13:30

Hoffenheim PPG 1.79

2-1 HIT CS3

Dortmund PPG 2.07

Away· +22.7% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim face Dortmund in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Dortmund 50%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hoffenheim and 2.0 for Dortmund (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.07 for Dortmund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.9%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -30.3%

Draw 21.7%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -16.4%

Away 50.3%

Odds: 2.44 EV: +22.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.5% Odds: 1.48 -1.6%

Over 3.5 44.7% Odds: 2.20 -1.7%

BTTS 65.8% Odds: 1.42 -6.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✔

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Hoffenheim

1.44

Dortmund

1.99

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -1.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-1.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)