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Hoffenheim vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Hoffenheim

PPG 1.79 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dortmund

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.4%0-34.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.2%1-36.1%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.6%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 40.0% 2.50 -30.3%

Draw 21.7% 26.0% 3.85 -16.4%

Away win 50.3% 41.0% 2.44 +22.7%

Over 2.5 66.5% 67.6% 1.48 -1.6%

Over 3.5 44.7% 45.5% 2.20 -1.7%

BTTS 65.8% 70.4% 1.42 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob65.8%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1✓ 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoffenheim1.4

Dortmund2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOFFENHEIM · PPG 1.79

DORTMUND · PPG 2.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Win probability 1X2

Hoffenheim (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -30.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.4%

Dortmund (A) 50.3%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim face Dortmund in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Dortmund 50%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hoffenheim and 2.0 for Dortmund (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.07 for Dortmund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Hoffenheim vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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