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AFC vs HSV Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:15

AFC

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

HSV Hoek

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

Away 45% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+25.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-112.9%0-210.1%0-35.3%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.6%2-15.6%2-24.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 40.8% 2.45 -45.1%

Draw 25.4% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Away win 52.2% 41.7% 2.40 +25.3%

Over 2.5 45.6% 57.8% 1.73 -21.1%

Over 3.5 24.2% — — —

BTTS 47.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.8%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob47.9%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.9%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–2 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC0.9

HSV Hoek1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC · PPG 1.57

HSV HOEK · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

45%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

AFC (H) 22.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -45.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

HSV Hoek (A) 52.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC face HSV Hoek in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC a 22% chance, the draw 25% and HSV Hoek 52%, so HSV Hoek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for AFC and 1.6 for HSV Hoek (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.71 for HSV Hoek. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 1-5.

AFC vs HSV Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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