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Gremio W vs Mixto W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Gremio W

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mixto W

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.40)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-16.7%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.7%1-111.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio W1.6

Mixto W0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO W · PPG 0.75

MIXTO W · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Gremio W (H) 52.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mixto W (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio W face Mixto W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio W a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Mixto W 22%, so Gremio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gremio W and 0.7 for Mixto W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio W are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.40 for Mixto W. This match finished 3-0.

Gremio W vs Mixto W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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