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Riga FC vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.7% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.0%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-13.6%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.8%2-16.3%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.3%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.2%4+-115.5%4+-25.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.7% 88.5% 1.13 -19.0%

Draw 20.6% 14.7% 6.80 +24.1%

Away win 7.8% 6.7% 15.00 +10.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 59.1% 55.6% 1.80 +6.4%

BTTS 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.4%

H 72% / xG 3.5-0.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.4%

#2 4–0 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC3.5

FS Jelgava0.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.60

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 71.7%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -19.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +24.1%

FS Jelgava (A) 7.8%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 72% chance, the draw 21% and FS Jelgava 8%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Riga FC and 0.6 for FS Jelgava (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Riga FC vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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