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Onsala vs Hestrafor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Onsala

PPG 0.67 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hestrafor

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.0%0-26.6%0-34.2%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.2%1-19.8%1-29.3%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-16.9%2-26.5%2-34.1%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.7%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-31.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 55.6% 1.80 -44.6%

Draw 24.5% 25.0% 4.00 -1.2%

Away win 44.7% 29.4% 3.40 +52.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 41.8% 50.0% 2.00 -16.4%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Onsala1.4

Hestrafor1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ONSALA · PPG 0.67

HESTRAFOR · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Onsala (H) 30.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -44.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.2%

Hestrafor (A) 44.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +52.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Onsala face Hestrafor in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Onsala a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Hestrafor 45%, so Hestrafor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Onsala and 1.9 for Hestrafor (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Onsala are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.25 for Hestrafor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.0%. This match finished 5-1.

Onsala vs Hestrafor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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