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Hammarby Talang vs Stockholm Inter Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stockholm Inter

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.0%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.1%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 41.7% 2.40 +0.3%

Draw 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -8.5%

Away win 33.3% 39.2% 2.55 -15.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 56.5% 1.77 +4.6%

Over 3.5 35.8% 33.9% 2.95 +5.6%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang1.6

Stockholm Inter1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.33

STOCKHOLM INTER · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.33) strong but model favors Home (P=41.8%)

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.5%

Stockholm Inter (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face Stockholm Inter in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Stockholm Inter 33%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hammarby Talang and 1.4 for Stockholm Inter (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Stockholm Inter. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Hammarby Talang vs Stockholm Inter Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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