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Schaffhausen vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Schaffhausen

PPG 1.73 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lugano B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.0%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.4%1-18.8%1-25.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.1%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.8% — — —

Over 3.5 44.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schaffhausen2.2

Lugano B1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHAFFHAUSEN · PPG 1.73

LUGANO B · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Schaffhausen (H) 53.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lugano B (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Schaffhausen face Lugano B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schaffhausen a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Lugano B 23%, so Schaffhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Schaffhausen and 1.2 for Lugano B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schaffhausen are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for Lugano B. This match finished 4-2.

Schaffhausen vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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