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RKAV Volendam vs Barendrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

RKAV Volendam

PPG 1.25 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Barendrecht

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.2%0-22.8%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.1%1-17.2%1-26.3%1-33.7%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.5%3-16.1%3-25.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.8%4+-25.1%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 44.4% 2.25 +15.2%

Draw 23.0% 28.6% 3.50 -11.7%

Away win 25.8% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 56.8% 52.6% 1.90 +7.9%

BTTS 63.0% 74.1% 1.35 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.0%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RKAV Volendam2.3

Barendrecht1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RKAV VOLENDAM · PPG 1.25

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

RKAV Volendam (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.2%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.7%

Barendrecht (A) 25.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

RKAV Volendam face Barendrecht in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RKAV Volendam a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Barendrecht 26%, so RKAV Volendam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for RKAV Volendam and 1.8 for Barendrecht (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RKAV Volendam are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.06 for Barendrecht. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 5-2.

RKAV Volendam vs Barendrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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