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Hollenbach vs Villingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Hollenbach

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Villingen

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.0%1-18.9%1-28.0%1-34.8%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.8%3-24.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 37.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

A 37% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2✓ 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hollenbach1.8

Villingen1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLLENBACH · PPG 1.27

VILLINGEN · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Hollenbach (H) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villingen (A) 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hollenbach face Villingen in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hollenbach a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Villingen 37%, so Hollenbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hollenbach and 1.8 for Villingen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hollenbach are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.20 for Villingen. This match finished 1-2.

Hollenbach vs Villingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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