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Aalen vs Pforzheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Aalen

PPG 2.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pforzheim

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.8%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.2%1-17.2%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.1%3-18.0%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-19.6%4+-24.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 17.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.0% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 61% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalen2.6

Pforzheim1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AALEN · PPG 2.33

PFORZHEIM · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Aalen (H) 60.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pforzheim (A) 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalen face Pforzheim in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalen a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Pforzheim 18%, so Aalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Aalen and 1.0 for Pforzheim (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalen are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Pforzheim. This match finished 5-1.

Aalen vs Pforzheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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