Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs Ogre United
Super Nova vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga
Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 77 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 53%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%
Form & verdict
SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.40
OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00
No PPG data
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Super Nova face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Ogre United 22%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Super Nova and 0.9 for Ogre United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 3-1.