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Normannia Gmund vs Backnang Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Normannia Gmund

PPG 1.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Backnang

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.1%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.8%1-18.6%1-26.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-16.4%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.5%4+-24.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 24.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.3% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2✓ 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Normannia Gmund2.1

Backnang1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORMANNIA GMUND · PPG 1.27

BACKNANG · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Normannia Gmund (H) 51.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Backnang (A) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Normannia Gmund face Backnang in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Normannia Gmund a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Backnang 25%, so Normannia Gmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Normannia Gmund and 1.5 for Backnang (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Normannia Gmund are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.13 for Backnang. This match finished 1-2.

Normannia Gmund vs Backnang Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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