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Geretsried vs Nordlingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Geretsried

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nordlingen

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.5%0-23.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.3%1-18.8%1-27.2%1-34.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.4%3-15.6%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 30.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.5% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Geretsried2.0

Nordlingen1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GERETSRIED · PPG 1.40

NORDLINGEN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Geretsried (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nordlingen (A) 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Geretsried face Nordlingen in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Geretsried a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Nordlingen 31%, so Geretsried are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Geretsried and 1.6 for Nordlingen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Geretsried are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.14 for Nordlingen. This match finished 4-1.

Geretsried vs Nordlingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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