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Ismaning vs Kottern Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Ismaning

PPG 1.73 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kottern

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.2%1-110.0%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-16.3%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ismaning1.9

Kottern1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ISMANING · PPG 1.73

KOTTERN · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Ismaning (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kottern (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ismaning face Kottern in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ismaning a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Kottern 25%, so Ismaning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ismaning and 1.2 for Kottern (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ismaning are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.87 for Kottern. This match finished 4-1.

Ismaning vs Kottern Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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