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Pipinsried vs Erlbach Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Pipinsried

PPG 1.73 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Erlbach

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.5%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.2%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 24.0% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 30.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pipinsried1.7

Erlbach1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PIPINSRIED · PPG 1.73

ERLBACH · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Pipinsried (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Erlbach (A) 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pipinsried face Erlbach in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pipinsried a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Erlbach 24%, so Pipinsried are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pipinsried and 1.0 for Erlbach (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pipinsried are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.13 for Erlbach. This match finished 0-2.

Pipinsried vs Erlbach Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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