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Sokol Kleczew vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Sokol Kleczew

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

O. Grudziadz

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+26.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.3%0-26.3%0-35.0%0-4+5.1%1 1-03.2%1-17.6%1-29.0%1-37.1%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.3%2-15.4%2-26.4%2-35.1%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-23.1%3-32.4%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -10.4%

Draw 19.3% 27.0% 3.70 -28.6%

Away win 58.3% 58.8% 1.70 -0.9%

Over 2.5 72.9% 57.8% 1.73 +26.1%

Over 3.5 52.4% 36.4% 2.75 +44.1%

BTTS 68.8% 57.8% 1.73 +19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob68.8%

A 58% / xG 1.4-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sokol Kleczew1.4

O. Grudziadz2.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOKOL KLECZEW · PPG 1.21

O. GRUDZIADZ · PPG 1.62

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.21) vs Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Sokol Kleczew (H) 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.4%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -28.6%

O. Grudziadz (A) 58.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sokol Kleczew face O. Grudziadz in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sokol Kleczew a 22% chance, the draw 19% and O. Grudziadz 58%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sokol Kleczew and 2.4 for O. Grudziadz (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sokol Kleczew are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.62 for O. Grudziadz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Sokol Kleczew vs O. Grudziadz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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