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Karlberg vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Karlberg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jarfalla

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.7%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.6%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.1%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.4%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 57.8% 1.73 -10.6%

Draw 24.0% 26.3% 3.80 -5.3%

Away win 24.3% 25.6% 3.90 -3.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 64.5% 1.55 -8.4%

Over 3.5 34.1% 42.0% 2.38 -18.8%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlberg1.9

Jarfalla1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLBERG · PPG 1.33

JARFALLA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Karlberg (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -10.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.3%

Jarfalla (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlberg face Jarfalla in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlberg a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Jarfalla 24%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Karlberg and 1.1 for Jarfalla (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlberg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Jarfalla. This match finished 1-3.

Karlberg vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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