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Grobina vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 15:00

Grobina

PPG 0.33 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Tukums

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+31.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-115.2%0-212.7%0-37.1%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.6%1-111.0%1-29.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-02.4%2-14.0%2-23.4%2-31.9%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 35.7% 2.80 -36.1%

Draw 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

Away win 58.4% 44.4% 2.25 +31.4%

Over 2.5 47.4% 54.1% 1.85 -12.3%

Over 3.5 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -17.6%

BTTS 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob49.1%

A 58% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.2%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 0–2 12.7%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina0.7

Tukums1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.33

TUKUMS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.33), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 14.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -36.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.8%

Tukums (A) 58.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 14% chance, the draw 27% and Tukums 58%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Grobina and 1.7 for Tukums (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.60 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Grobina vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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