Today / Spain - La Liga / Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo

Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 19:30

Real Madrid

PPG 2.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Oviedo

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.9%1-17.5%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.9%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-17.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 79.4% 1.26 -14.3%

Draw 22.8% 18.2% 5.50 +15.2%

Away win 9.2% 9.5% 10.50 -2.0%

Over 2.5 59.4% 66.7% 1.50 -10.9%

Over 3.5 34.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 68% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.1%

#2 3–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid2.4

Real Oviedo0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID · PPG 2.53

REAL OVIEDO · PPG 0.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.53), Away POOR (0.59) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -14.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +15.2%

Real Oviedo (A) 9.2%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid face Real Oviedo in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Real Oviedo 9%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Real Madrid and 0.6 for Real Oviedo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 0.59 for Real Oviedo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - La Liga Predictions