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Girona vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 36 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 18:00

Girona

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Sociedad

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.3%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.3%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.1%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 51.3% 1.95 -27.9%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 35.8% 27.8% 3.60 +28.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Over 3.5 28.4% 34.7% 2.88 -10.9%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 0–0 6.8%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Girona1.3

Real Sociedad1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIRONA · PPG 1.29

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Girona (H) 37.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Real Sociedad (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Girona face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Girona a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad 36%, so Girona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Girona and 1.4 for Real Sociedad (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Girona are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Girona vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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