Girona vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Tips

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Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 36 Estadio Municipal de Montilivi· Girona Thursday, May 14, 2026 18:00

Girona PPG 1.29

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Real Sociedad PPG 0.88

Away· +28.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.0%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -27.9%

Draw 27.1%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -1.5%

Away 35.8%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +28.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.3% Odds: 1.75 -8.5%

Over 3.5 28.4% Odds: 2.88 -10.9%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.65 -9.9%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Girona

1.31

Real Sociedad

1.38

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+28.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -19.9%

Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.88)