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Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 17:00

Valencia

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-111.2%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.9%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 45.0% 2.22 -7.9%

Draw 31.3% 31.3% 3.20 +0.2%

Away win 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Over 2.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Over 3.5 17.4% 27.4% 3.65 -21.9%

BTTS 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.7%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valencia1.2

Rayo Vallecano1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIA · PPG 1.53

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Valencia (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -7.9%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.2%

Rayo Vallecano (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valencia face Rayo Vallecano in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valencia a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Rayo Vallecano 27%, so Valencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valencia and 1.0 for Rayo Vallecano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valencia are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.88 for Rayo Vallecano. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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