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Getafe vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 19:30

Getafe

PPG 1.24 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Mallorca

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-111.9%0-24.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.1%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.3%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 44.6% 2.24 -4.6%

Draw 33.0% 32.8% 3.05 +0.7%

Away win 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

Over 2.5 34.7% 38.5% 2.60 -9.8%

Over 3.5 13.1% 19.0% 5.25 -18.7%

BTTS 48.1% 46.5% 2.15 +3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe1.1

Mallorca0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE · PPG 1.24

MALLORCA · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.24) > Away POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Getafe (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -4.6%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +0.7%

Mallorca (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe face Mallorca in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Mallorca 24%, so Getafe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Getafe and 0.8 for Mallorca (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.53 for Mallorca. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Getafe vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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