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Alaves vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 19:30

Alaves

PPG 1.41 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FC Barcelona

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 49.5% — a clear edge.

+22.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-19.1%0-29.7%0-36.9%0-4+6.0%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.2%2-14.8%2-25.1%2-33.6%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.6% 30.8% 3.25 -31.5%

Draw 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -3.0%

Away win 60.4% 49.5% 2.02 +22.0%

Over 2.5 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Over 3.5 38.7% 45.5% 2.20 -14.9%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob54.6%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 1–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.0

FC Barcelona2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.41

FC BARCELONA · PPG 2.18

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs Home AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 14.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -31.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.0%

FC Barcelona (A) 60.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face FC Barcelona in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 15% chance, the draw 25% and FC Barcelona 60%, so FC Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Alaves and 2.1 for FC Barcelona (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 2.18 for FC Barcelona. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Alaves vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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