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Villarreal vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 36 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 17:00

Villarreal

PPG 2.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sevilla FC

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.6%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-18.3%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.5%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-17.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 50.0% 2.00 +18.6%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 18.2% 27.8% 3.60 -20.7%

Over 2.5 60.1% 57.1% 1.75 +5.2%

Over 3.5 40.1% 35.7% 2.80 +12.3%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal2.3

Sevilla FC0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL · PPG 2.53

SEVILLA FC · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal (H) 59.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +18.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Sevilla FC (A) 18.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal face Sevilla FC in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Sevilla FC 18%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Villarreal and 0.9 for Sevilla FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 0.88 for Sevilla FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Villarreal vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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