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Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 36 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 17:00

Espanyol

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.6%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.6%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 38.2% 2.62 +15.5%

Draw 28.9% 31.7% 3.15 -5.4%

Away win 27.0% 37.3% 2.68 -16.6%

Over 2.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Over 3.5 22.9% 26.0% 3.85 -7.1%

BTTS 52.1% 54.6% 1.83 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.3

Athletic Bilbao1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.29

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +15.5%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.4%

Athletic Bilbao (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Athletic Bilbao in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Athletic Bilbao 27%, so Espanyol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Espanyol and 1.1 for Athletic Bilbao (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Athletic Bilbao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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