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Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 19:30

Osasuna

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Madrid

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.4%0-26.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.6%1-112.7%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-17.8%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 41.3% 2.42 -11.7%

Draw 28.0% 29.0% 3.45 -2.0%

Away win 35.5% 37.0% 2.70 -4.2%

Over 2.5 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Over 3.5 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 1–2✓ 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna1.2

Atletico Madrid1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA · PPG 1.88

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -11.7%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.0%

Atletico Madrid (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Madrid 36%, so Osasuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Osasuna and 1.3 for Atletico Madrid (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.18 for Atletico Madrid. This match finished 1-2.

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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