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Real Betis vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 36 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 18:00

Real Betis

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Elche

PPG 0.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.3%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.3%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.4%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 61.3% 1.63 -14.9%

Draw 25.4% 24.4% 4.10 +2.5%

Away win 22.4% 21.3% 4.70 +3.2%

Over 2.5 59.4% 60.6% 1.65 -2.0%

Over 3.5 34.7% 37.7% 2.65 -8.1%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Betis1.9

Elche1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.76

ELCHE · PPG 0.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.76) vs P(Home)=52.2%

Win probability 1X2

Real Betis (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -14.9%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.5%

Elche (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Betis face Elche in Spain - La Liga on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Betis a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Elche 22%, so Real Betis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Real Betis and 1.0 for Elche (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Betis are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 0.41 for Elche. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Betis vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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